Baidu expands, but Google is high end

One of the things that this blog has been saying for some time is that (1) Baidu is going to expand its market share rather than decline and (2) Google is a good bet because it has richer users.

Well the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC) has come out with another survey showing just this.

Baidu is up again to 74.5% of the search engine share.  Although this looks close to the peak, we have reason to believe that the market share will still increase.

However the interesting story is Google.  TradingMarkets.com report that among educated, older and more prosperous users Google is almost drawing even - which would start to explain why their return on investment tends to be higher than Baidu.

Another post by our colleagues at SEO4China shows a similar story with a reasonably strong showing by Google in tier one cities, average in tier 2 cities and nothing in tier 3 cities.  (They also pick up the importance of the high earners).  Now as the internet goes more blue collar and rural over time, this could mean that Google will lose even more market share.

The problem for Google is that they are simply not prepared to become like Microsoft in the UK or US, a good return on investment but not the market leader.  As we’ve said before, a little less chest beating and more bean counting will do Google well.

Now the analysts are writing off Google in China

Google is at last getting some good news in China, the stock market analysts are declaring the battle with Baidu to be over, with Google the loser.  Considering their track record, should I be changing my predictions of continued Baidu dominance?

Google cries Uncle (Sam)

Google desperately wants to break into China.  Google only finds itself falling behind Baidu, at least relatively.  Instead of trying to make their pile in China they are obsessed with being number one. 

Now Eric Schmidt is angling to get the American government to intervene, calling Chinese net censorship a trade barrier.  Then the plan is for the American government to intervene against Chinese imports.

This is mad for two reasons.  Firstly Google could harm American citizens through their special pleading, and these American citizens - even in these protectionist times - may not appreciate this. 

Secondly countries and societies have a perfect right what they wish to restrict.  Google doesn’t like gambling and gun sites, which is commendable.  Almost no country will allow certain types of explicit images - and prosecute people to the ends of the earth for offering or even viewing these.  The American government stops free speech with British gambling sites.

China is no different.  More repressive, yes.  But national sovereignty means that things such as net censorship are rightly the matter of the governments.

Google Bleed Cash in bid to catch up with Baidu

Google are going to go into China with cheque book open, and buying a couple of unannounced companies.  (Thanks to the Multilingual search blog for pointing this out).

Is Baidu the perfect stock?

I tend to avoid investor articles on Baidu, but this one neatly summarises a certain view of Baidu as a big growth stock.  I don’t agree with the idea that Google doesn’t rate, as they have a large share of the high end of the market.

Gloomy prognosis for Google China

Bloomberg has a rather gloomy article (well for Westerners) about how Western internet companies can never get to the number one spot.  (Google could tell them, if it had any sense, that number two spot is lucrative enough thank you).

China Search Ads on Webmaster Radio

James Spencer of China Search Ads will be interviewed on webmasterradio.fm on Thursday 12 July Thursday 5pm Eastern Standard Time, 10pm in the UK.  For other times see http://www.worldtimezone.com/

He talks about Baidu, why Google’s not doing well, online payment, what the Chinese online market is like and even a bit about Alibaba.

Internet Censorship - Bait and Switch

The Guardian hosts an old article about Internet censorship, which focuses on China.  There is an interesting bait and switch.  The author talks about Yahoo giving information to Chinese state security used to imprison a dissident - and then condemns Google.  Google’s crime, it seems, is doing any business in China.

At the moment it seems that shareholders and governments are accepting the brute commercial logic that it is not a private company’s business to interfere in another country’s government - but will this last?

Ironically this sort of pressure is most likely to help Baidu and other Chinese search engines that are based in China.

Google on why they’re going to China

I thought I’d point my readers to an old post from Google justifying their re-entry into the Chinese market.  It is very easy for Google critics to forget that Google is a business.  (This is perhaps the best argument for not adding adverts to Wikipedia).

Pleas note that this is from 2006.